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January 31 Soft systems....Our emerging society is based on hard systems - these systems provide the infrastructure that will eventually replace C20th organisation and management. Technologies that give us broadband internet connections, automated transactions, mobile communications, and personal computing are reshaping our economy. The key feature here is the global impact of connection - we are all connected to a global economy whether we like it or not. This new global economy is an automated giant - it is a "machine to machine" entity. The key issues with this new entity are design, purpose, and the unintended consequences created within huge networks. Design a new debt derivative for the US housing market - make it paper not asset based and syndicate it around the global network of banks. The purpose of this new financial tool is to slash the cost of credit for US housing stock in a period of asset inflation within that market - with these loans many low-income families can buy US housing assets. The intended consequences of this schema is to use the global financial network to establish lines of credit for families that otherwise could not enter the US housing market - the unintended consequences is a meltdown of global banking due to these so called "sub prime loans". What went wrong here? Why didn't we get the full benefit of the new global economy reigned down on the US housing market? What can we learn from this debacle? What can we do in future to better reap the benefits of global networks? The answer to all those questions is simple - we must develop new types of soft systems within the local economy if we are to reap the massive benefits available within the global economy. We must workout new ways to link hard with soft systems. This will not be too difficult a task once we recognise the issues involved. We can already see how this works for Facebook and other social networks. Sure they have issues because there are unintended consequences there too - the predatory behaviours of creeps on this social network are a real concern. Anti-social behaviour has invaded Facebook - just as anti-social behaviour invaded the sub-prime loans network. In both instances it is soft systems that corrupt the network - it is people acting badly that generates the unintended consequences that bring the network into disrepute. January 29 2008 - become your own customer....This year is all about crises.... It is about challenge.... It is about being uncomfortable.... It is about being stretched.... It is about adopting new habits, mindsets, and ways of being in the world.... This year I intend to meet these challenges by becoming my own customer. Everything I do will have maximum "use value" for me. By becoming my own customer I bring perspective to my life. Would I buy this from me? Would I enter into a contract with me to have me supply this load of waffle to me for the next 5 years? Would I recommend my service to others? Do I buy the storyline that goes with the service/product that comes from me? What would have to change for me to want to buy what I sell now? What has to change for me to convince me to enter into a new 5 year contract for my services? What has to be done to improve the quality, timeliness, and use value of my services/products? I recommend you meet the challenges of 2008 by becoming your own customer too...... January 28 2008 - here we go again....When I was studying economics I often wondered how so many clever people could be so dumb in a crisis. Today the world is experiencing a financial crisis - it is happening because bankers no longer trust each other. They had trusted each other when Citigroup and others established a global network of credit facilities to finance low interest loans in the US housing market. The US Congress is full of clever people and yet it is about to do a dumb thing - it is about to try to bail out Americans from the current sub prime lending meltdown. This year we are all going to learn that the Nation-State economy is over. The US Congress is doing the "political" things needed to reassure their electors that they are working for them - in the process they are about to worsen what is already a major global crisis. This sub prime lending debacle is a global not just a National economic event - it has its roots in the global banking system not the US banking system. The creators of this problem live in the emerging global banking system - they networked the sub prime debt to leverage their profits. Networks are efficient and effective so long as they are relevant and remarkable. Sub prime lending was initially both relevant (low interest loans to home buyers who had an appreciating asset) and remarkable (these loans were granted quickly and with little fuss). The sub prime network was robust and growing until too many bankers got greedy and began to recycle their own risk - they increased their risk way beyond what was necessary because they wanted to make even greater profits. Greedy bankers chasing more and more profits - through commissions - eroded the trust within the system. Trust collapsed and so too did the sub prime network. The problem with sub prime was greedy bankers but now it has become a systemic lack of trust. Bankers can not trust each other - this means they no longer want to lend to each other. This quickly brings about a liquidity crisis in the global banking system. This means those with highly geared loans are going to lose their money or assets - even banks. As banks lose money they become risk averse and they refuse to lend to each other. A global meltdown results. The hardest hit is the US mortgagee but this is a global crisis that can not be solved by the Congress voting to pour $150 Billion into the national economy. This is a new development in economics - we will need new theories and practice if we are ever to understand how to connect the new global economy and the Nation-State economy. Here we go again..... January 27 2008 - fewer people....Fewer people.... We need more people is the universal cry. We need more talent is the mantra. We need more people if we are to innovate. We need more people if we are to generate the ideas we need to grow. We need more people..... 2008 is different. We need to be different. We need to slough off the traditional management theories and practices. We need to implement new ideas. We need to work with customers to innovate. We need to cooperate with "would be" competitors. We need fewer people...... The way forward for business is different - think about having fewer not more marketing campaigns. Think about having fewer not more carbon emissions. Think about having fewer not more energy demands. Think about having fewer not more strategies. Think about having fewer not more competitors. Think about having fewer not more people......... January 25 2008 - jettison the sick role....Home again after an operation to repair my achillies tendon - I ruptured it playing tennis with my boys and a friend. I have just spent 4 days in hospital and now am looking at 6-8 weeks in a plaster cast with limited mobility. It would be so easy to slip into the "sick role" - to be passive and become a victim. The first step there is to think about what you should have or could have done that would have avoided the injury - soon you are the victim of your new found circumstances. You quickly adopt the "sick role" and submit to those around you and their ideas of what is best for you. I found that it was easy to stay independent and alert at hospital because the staff there were so good. They cater for those who are playing the victim and equally for those who are not. For me it was a pleasure to be attended by people who were able to set out the information for me to make some critical decisions about my injury, operation, post op, and rehabilitation. I took control and the doctors, nurses, physio, et al served me in what I determined was my best interests. Everyone rallied around me to help. The lesson re-enforced for me is everyone can, and should, jettison the "sick role" in 2008. The sick role is all about becoming a victim - it is easy to become a victim when you are injured or have health issues. But it is just as easy to become a victim in this emerging time of economic and political stress - my aim is to remain independent in thought, focused on new ideas, and determined to build new ventures. January 21 2008 - enjoy life, be lucky, and take risks.....The world is ready to reward you if you are ready to enjoy life, be lucky, and take risks. The mindset you need for all three is the same. Life is going to be difficult for most this year because the changes that are coming will appear to be random not predictable. Life may not be easy but it must be enjoyed - the worst must be seen as not as bad as it could be. Personal setbacks are to be put aside as you strive to enjoy the positives about what you are doing. Are you enjoying your life? What can you do to re-frame your mindset that will improve your lot right now? Luck is going to be important this year because you will be tested with a series of life events. Luck is a matter of attitude - lucky people have a good attitude towards everything that is happening to them. Luck accompanies those who have a mindset to cope well with setbacks and adversity. Are you feeling lucky in your life? What can you change about your luck mindset that will improve your lot right now? Risk taking is essential this year for all of us to get the most out of life. Risk is a personal thing and it is usually balanced across a life - you may be a risk taker in the economy and risk averse in your personal life. Risk taking profiles become habits. Are you able to change your risk taking habits? What can you change about your risk-taking mindset that will improve your your lot right now? January 20 2008 - your purpose is a great customer experience....The customer is dead - long live the customer experience... Cinema is a customer experience.... The movie can be good or bad but if the "customer experience" is good then you will return next time you want a treat. Two years in a row now my family has taken me to the movies for my birthday. Last year the movie was good and the experience was great. This year the movie was ordinary and the experience was extraordinary. It turns out that a poor movie simply makes you enjoy the experience of this theater even more. Here there are fully reclining seats, full a la carte menu, and full-on in cinema customer service. The secret is the customer experience extends well beyond the quality of the movie. In the past "customer service" was an afterthought or an extension of the product or service you purchased. You bought tickets to a bad movie - well that was your problem because essentially it had nothing to do with cinema management. The cinema management was focussed on its revenue models - high priced seats and junk food. The customer service system was geared to increasing the cinema revenue not the customer experience. I remember seeing the movie "Black Hawk Down" in a cinema in downtown San Francisco. The place was packed like a tin of sardines and yet for the first five minutes of the movie the ushers were working hard to fit more patrons in - this customer service was all about increasing the takings for that movie session. In the future "customer experience" will be an integral part of the product or the service you purchase. It is the customer experience that has made eBay, Amazon, Skype, Apple, etc the great companies they are today. It is the customer service approach of Microsoft, Citigroup, Wal Mart, etc that will have these companies struggling more than they should in future. 2008 is a breakthrough year for those who choose to make "customer experience" their purpose. The customer experience of Google is born of its free search and tools that can be networked to friends, colleagues, etc. Google offers everyone a customer experience that is the best around for no cost - it then supplements that offering with helpful links to product and service providers who can do more specific things for you. Google is a global network that is easy for you to access - you will do that if and only if it provides you with a great "customer experience". If you use Google's free service enough you will eventually also use the supplementary services that are linked into its search results. The key value here is "use value" - the key variable is a great customer experience. January 17 2008 - stop navel gazing within your enterprise....Time to forget the navel gazing in your enterprise. Sack all the consultants, advisers, and contractors who are not focussed on your customers. Any program that is solely for internal consumption I would shut down this year. All marketing that is solely about brand, image, and vision for the enterprise I would terminate. All marketing that is focussed on particular products or services I would wind up in an orderly fashion. All employees who have no direct contact with customers I would review your need for and then outsource their functions. All technologies that provide customers with better access to your products/services, speeds delivery to them, and builds their trust in your capabilities I would look to spend more and more on over this financial year/term. 2008 is wake up time. It is time to stop paying consultants who merely help you to navel gaze. 2008 - hang with customers not colleagues....2008 could be the year your world changes for the better. One way to ensure that comes true is "to hang with the talent" - given that the talent pool (in general) is with the customer it makes perfect sense "to hang with your customers". Form a sentience boundary around yourself and your customers - bond with them, listen to them, work with them on innovations, and be inspired by their trust in you. It is a no brain decision really. Can you bond with your colleague given the competitive nature of your workplace? Do you listen to them given they repeat the same old war stories or tales of their experiences? Do you find you can innovate with your colleagues or do you need a consultant and a war room environment to even come close to sharing new ideas? Do you find they trust you given they are looking to further their career at your expense if the opportunity arises? Well it turns out you can bond with customers, you can listen to them because they usually have good things to tell you, you can most certainly innovate with them, and you can bank on their trust in you because they need you to keep delivering to them. You are or you certainly soon become the product of who you hang with. Hang with your customers in 2008 and you may end up liking who you become - it will certainly be someone who is far more successful than you were in 2007. January 16 2008 - its the customer stupid.....When Bill Clinton was running for the White House he famously had a sign in his campaign headquarters that read "its the economy stupid".... He was right. In 2008 please have a sign above, on, or around your desk that reads "its the customer stupid!!!".... Then you too will be right. The sign is there to remind you that your business depends on customers not staff - so make the customers happy first and the staff will follow (most managers try to work it the other way around). Every investment decision you make this year should be clearly biased towards the customer - will this new computer improve a customer's access to us, speed of delivery to them, or level of trust in us? If the answer is no to any of those three criteria then find one that will. The new war for talent is within the ranks of customers - if your business has better and more talented customers than your competitor you win. This is so because the real war in 2008 is for ideas - it is the talented customer who wants to improve your business, for his or her sake, who will make the biggest impact. All you need do to be a big winner in 2008 is to ask your customer two questions. First, what is it you like most about our business? Second, how could we make it even better for you next time you come to deal with us? 2008 - happy customers ...Yesterday over lunch with a good friend the conversation turned to C21st business models. First up I mentioned I had dispatched yet another missive to Eric Schmidt (CEO at Google) urging him to do something about the old world culture at the Googleplex - yeah good luck with that says my friend. My friend knows just how much I want "I Google" to work - he once worked for a bank where I was consulting and there a group of us worked out some notions we referred to as "virtual me" which would sit nicely within iGoogle. But if iGoogle is to work then I believe the Googleplex has to be disassembled - only then will the development of the concepts and technologies needed to power iGoogle emerge. The future of iGoogle is all about what you and I think about and pose questions about - it is not about what the Googlers think about and pose questions about. The Googlers have to interact more with the likes of you, me, and my lunch mate. The problem IBM had in the early 1980s when it missed the development of the personal computer was hubris (often referred to as the not invented here syndrome) - hubris might just prove to be a problem at the Googleplex too. The iGoogle project needs to be all about the customer/user search requirements not just the search technology and not just the passive revenue models that can be attached to those search technologies. I would leave the revenue buffs at the Googleplex and ship out the programmers to China, India, Ireland, etc.... Soon we were discussing the rise and rise of Jeff Bezos at Amazon - is this the perfect new age business we pondered? My friend added to this conversation by explaining for me the technology behind what Jeff Bezos refers to as "the cloud" at Amazon. This is where it all happens as customers requests are all sorted and switched to the right source. Amazon is a destructive force within Nation-State economies - it destroys conventional supply/value chains and it makes a complete nonsense of value adding principles of work. Amazon is all about "use value" - it is all about happy customers. Amazon has happy customers who tell others how they can become happy customers too. Amazon is not really a business in the sense that we have come to understand the meaning of that word - it is a network of happy customers. It is a global network of happy customers - however it is also a new type of economic entity because it is replacing existing suppy chains and distribution networks. Amazon has become a networked economy - it has transcended its origins as a US business and become a global economic entity. It has achieved this success through applying online business models and by ensuring it has happy customers. January 15 2008 - access, speed, and trust....Jeff Bezos has built a C21st business at Amazon - one based on access, speed, and trust. It does not matter how nice the people in the bookstore are to you or how hard they "try to help you" if they do not provide you with unequivocal access to what you seek. In a bookstore with 150,000 titles on the shelves you are often "turned away" because the book seller can not access the title(s) you seek. You are asked to fill out a form so the book seller can "back order" it for you - this only adds insult to your injury a few days later as the book seller has made no progress with your request. The back order process is unreliable but it is also too slow. After a week you have either sourced your book somewhere else or you have forgotten why you ever wanted it. It is about now the book seller rings to inform you this title is out of print - she suggests you try the second-hand book sellers. You are no longer listening - she has lost your trust. To be relevant and remarkable in 2008 you must invest in your customers - you must base your business on access, speed, and trust. January 14 2008 - focus on your future not your past....You are in for a wild ride in 2008 if you can focus on your future opportunities not on your past plans... Your past got you to the starting gate for 2008... What you do now is entirely up to you right here and now not what you did last year or ten years ago or twenty years ago... A simple case in point is Google - it has a huge opportunity in 2008 to develop the first interactive search engine.... They already have a name for it - iGoogle. The opportunities to expand the Google empire into the world of "I Google" is far greater than anything the boys and girls at the Googleplex have achieved thusfar.... The constraint they have this year that wasn't there before is "the Googleplex" - it is a store of the history of Google so far and thus it is an anchor on iGoogle.... I sincerely hope the brainstrust at "the Googleplex" will cast off their anchor and take all the opportunities that iGoogle can offer - I have and will continue to urge Eric Schmidt (Google CEO and resident technology management guru at the Googleplex) to do just that but there is no sign he/they will see the light. The problem with "the Googleplex" is it is inward looking and so its culture is constrained to Googlers' inventions - the opportunity with iGoogle is to become outward looking and so to build a culture that is focussed on consumer/user/customer invention..... Good luck with that challenge Eric! Your future just like all those at the Googleplex now rests with your consumer/users/customers.... Your past is no doubt full of successes just like Google but if you merely continue to live with all its baggage in 2008 you will miss the great opportunities out there for you.... 2008 - become inclusive....Clear Space Thinking in 2008 is directed at becoming inclusive. An inclusive business is transparent, accessible, and fast. It teams with its consumers. It innovates through its customers. It presents all its goods and services as an inclusive experience. The best examples of this new type of business today are eBay and Amazon. Both are networked businesses. Both are transparent. Both are accessible. Both are fast. Both have a growth business built on trust. To become inclusive you have to change your old mindsets, habits, and ways of thinking in one fundamental dimension. You have to embrace the new world of abundance - you have to shutdown your old notions of scarcity. The world most of us live in today is notable because of the abundance not the scarcity of goods and services. The new economics is a description of an expanding universe with plenty of everything for all of us. The new economic imperative is cooperation - networks thrive when they are accessed and used by more and more people in a cooperative fashion. The expansion of eBay and Amazon networks is testimony to the power of these new digital cooperatives. They are an economic phenomena. In a digital economy the network is hard wired so it is cold and clinical - what brings it to life is the inclusion of consumers/users/customers into the design/production/assembly/distribution of goods and services. If and when your enterprise becomes a digital cooperative you will experience the new economic power of inclusion. January 13 2008 - your year to be remarkable....You are rich, famous, celebrated, and everything you ever wanted to be or at least you are dreaming of being so - but are you remarkable? To be remarkable you have to do things that cause people to "remark" about it. Einstein was remarkable whenever he delivered a new academic paper that set out his latest thinking or ideas - his fame was based on the "word of mouth promotion" by others who found his ideas remarkable. When you are remarkable you are doing something that has "use value" to others. You are doing things that matter to others. You are doing things that enhance other people's lives. You are doing things that give other people an experience they then want to talk about with others. To be remarkable you have to produce something that is just beyond the reach of "the mob". It has to be something that "the mob" can understand, use, and talk about but it also has to be beyond their immediate mindsets, habits, and ways of being in the world. 2008 - the real challenge is boredom.....Most people I know or meet are bored.... Yeah they suffer "boredom".... My grandfather did not have time to be bored - he had physical work to do. He had to use his labour to provide food, shelter, transport, etc in total or part. He lived a great life in many ways but he never knew the advantages/disadvantages of C21st. People today do not have to provide they simply have to earn money - the great majority of people today do not have to "labour" to earn money they simply have to "show up", to be attentive, to use their brain to learn what to do, and to be pleasant. Being pleasant, attentive, and just showing up has been enough to take one to the top of their organisation in the recent past. In the recent past there was an organisational ladder to climb - it was easy to climb it, if and only if, you did not aspire to a life outside of work. In the C21st most people spend most of their life outside of "work" - even when they are physically at "work" they are plugged into their iPod or computer or blackberry or facebook, etc. They are not present in the "work" because most of it is "make work" - that is it is not critical to the success of the place. At work today there are few people who can say that every minute of their work effort is vital to the success of the place - more likely they can point to those minutes that are relevant but not remarkable to the success of their enterprise (this includes CEOs and most of top management). The "inconvenient truth" of the contemporary workplace is that it has gone beyond people. The important work in the C21st is and will be done by consumers or customers not staff. It is the customer not the staff who will innovate your business. It is the experience that customers have when you are their provider that will ensure your growth not the talent you have assembled on your pay roll. If your workers are bored you are no doubt worried about it - you are therefore looking at what happens at the Googleplex and similar venues as a guide to what you should be doing to improve your lot. You are doing this because you still think people are the organisations greatest asset - you must forgive yourself for thinking this way because you are just part of "the mob" (ie more than 3 billion people around the globe) who think this way. But once you forgive yourself please move on - move on quickly. Let your staff be bored - let them complain about everything to do with work - so long as your consumers/customers are not bored. Microsoft is working hard to stop their workers from being bored - they are pulling out all the stops to attain work-life balance (whatever that term could possibly mean) and to attend to a litany of other complaints their worker bees have raised. The real problem for Microsoft in 2008 is their customers are bored with them - their customers are tired of the old mindsets, habits, and way of being in the world that is represented by Microsoft. Bill Gates admits that Microsoft missed the importance of the Internet so they now have the likes of Ray Ozzie at their Redmond Village trying to catch up with the rest of the world. Bill Gates got it wrong - Microsoft missed something much more important than the importance of the Internet. Microsoft missed the move from Nation-State to Networked Economy. Google is more attuned to the Networked Economy - it has build one of its own (The Google Economy). Nevertheless it has problems. If it persists with its current management team it will lose its edge. The problem at Google is the Googleplex - there are too many "old world managers and management ideas" locked up in that place for iGoogle to become the transparent, innovative, accessible, and user based tool it needs to be. If the Googleplex is networked to China, Ireland, etc and the users are able to join the development, presentation, and distribution of iGoogle then we may see Google reach its true potential but I doubt that will happen and so I expect the company to go the way of Microsoft and eventually lose favour with its most avid fans. 2008 is your year for development and achievement. If your work is full of bored workers and excited customers you on the right pathway to future success. If your work is full of excited workers and bored customers take a cold shower and find a new enterprise. January 11 2008 - your new beginning......2008 can be a new beginning for you.... The starting point is whatever is most important to you in this world..... For me what is most important is as follows: There is nothing more fulfilling in life than to give "unconditional love" to your child.... There is nothing more welcome in life than to receive the "unconditional love" of a parent.... January 10 2008 - a culture of one....This year there will be more and more done by fewer and fewer people.... Those people will cooperate with more and more people than ever before but in essence they will work alone.... The old saying "no man is an island" did not count on the current technology revolution nor the new mindsets, habits, and ways of being in the world that exist today.... Perhaps the adage for 2008 is "everyone is an island".... We are all islands connected by a digital network that enables us to leverage our impact upon the world.... 2008 is our year to celebrate "the culture of one". Culture is best defined as the "way things are done around here"... In a culture of one it is I who defines the ways things are done around here.... Think about that for a moment.... In many businesses today "the culture of one" exists because there is only one person to form it.... Warren Buffet now has seventeen or so people working for him - he says he is getting soft these days.... He also says that they are often very busy - at tax return time when they lodge a ten thousand page return - yeah 10,000 pages of tax return... But in the early days when he was building his investment portfolio he was a "culture of one".... He was essentially a one person business in the early days - those where the innovative days when he could take risks and explore many alternatives... As he admits it is far less exciting when you are investing billions of dollars in one hit because the options get slimmed down to the big players around the world.... So from a one man band to a seventeen stringed orchestra the Buffet show goes on pretty much as a "culture of one" today.... There is no greater recognition that "a culture of one" is prevalent today than the emergence of iGoogle. Google is trying to transmogrify from the search engine that serves us as employees, communities, and families to a search engine that serves each of us as individuals. iGoogle is premised on "a culture of one"... This new search engine is seeking results for the questions I raise in my mind - it is attached to Google Gears so that I can work online or offline equally effectively.... It is becoming a more and more my specific tool - a tool I can use when I cooperate with others but my tool nonetheless.... This year is my year - it is the year I learn to use iGoogle to answer my questions and also learn to use "a culture of one" to create my future wealth, health, and happiness.... January 08 2008 - a return to the cycle of trust.....Walk into your local supermarket and buy yourself a loaf of bread today - it could take you several minutes to find the right shelf before you begin to select the one you want. To help you make your final choice you and I have learned to rely on known brands. We all tend to buy what we know and what we know is a brand first and foremost. We know the brand from TV ads, from special promotions, from past purchases, and by word of mouth reputation. We buy a brand in the end not a loaf of bread - well all of us except those who buy a "no brand" or a "generic" loaf. In the 1950s your daily loaf was delivered by a local bakery. Everyday each household had a "standing order" delivered to the house. Any problems with the bread were reported and due compensation was effected. There was no brand - all bread was generic. You could order brown or white bread - you could also order hot crossed buns at Easter. The bread was nearly always warm when it arrived because it had just been baked and so the biggest problem was to secure it before the kids got stuck into it. The bread came unwrapped - thus it had no labeling to tell the consumer what the precise contents were inside. The bill for these bread deliveries came at the end of the week when the pay packets arrived for the household. However some resourceful bakers did extend their lines of credit beyond those weekly limits. All in all the process of making, delivering, purchasing, and consuming bread was a cycle of trust. Beginning in 2008 I expect us all to return to the "cycle of trust". We will do business with those we trust - we will seek out local suppliers wherever and whenever we can do so. We will use eBay more and more because it is based on a "cycle of trust" not on brand loyalty. We will buy more "no brand" or "generic" goods and services because we trust the providers. We will shun brands because they provide less "use value" than their "no brand" substitutes. January 07 2008 - live and work in the local economy....Success in 2008 belongs to those who can live and work within their local economy.... Some of you will be in high tech, some in retail, some in mining, some in government, some in agriculture, and some in start ups. People working at the Googleplex live and work within their local economy - the business they work for has built its own economy but Googleplex workers still live and work in Silicon Valley. The retail stores that serve Googleplex workers are staffed by locals - so too is the local government authority. Start ups in Silicon Valley are inhabited by locals - so too are organic fruit stands. Even some miners (or those still extracting California's oil) are locals. The key to success in 2008 and beyond is to become an integral part of a local cluster of people and economic activities - to work with people who share a common purpose. In 2008 and beyond your world should be all about local issues, endeavours, and outcomes. |
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