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February 27 Microsoft has become risk averse and ordinary....With all the advantages that Microsoft has had for 30 years how did is become so risk averse and ordinary? Richmond campus is the core of Microsoft's world. There some of the best and brightest people have worked 24/7 on making Microsoft what it is today. What it is for me is ordinary and risk averse. It has no buzz. It has no vision. It has no advocates within my circle of friends. What happened to Microsoft? What needs to happen for it to regain its verve? Google is slipping off the pace.... Google is great - the Googleplex is not. Google is like Microsoft - it is a prisoner of its own device. It is a prisoner of its own success. Too much success doing things that were cool in the 1990s. Success that came despite the fact that it has 1990s style management and systems. Sure they have the smartest 1990s management team going around today but they are not focused on doing 2010-20 things in search. Search is heading into real-time via Twitter. It is relational and thus real-time interactive search. Meaningful search. Search that connects you to options to solve your problem or the query you have running around inside your head. Google is pages behind your needs and your current mindset. iGoogle is a great idea - it needs to become a real-time networked search engine like Twitter then it will be a great help to me and you..... February 25 Three phase business model....Here is an integrated global/digital/networked business model. Access is provided by experiential local networks - good consumer experiences result in growth of local clusters. These clusters, in turn, connect to each other if, and only if, they have a shared purpose. These clusters are then connected by purpose-driven systems which stretch around the globe. This business model is essentially a three phase system. First, some local consumers form experiential clusters - these clusters form because people derive "use value" from their local network. Second, consumer clusters form into purpose-driven networks - consumer clusters link to each other if, and only if, they have a common purpose that is met by an extended network. Third, consumer clusters become an integral part of a facilitated network - consumer clusters are linked to global networks that facilitate their wants and needs. Each network is a money tree. February 23 Government is the new start-up and its forming a new bubble...Move over Silicon Valley and Route 128 Boston the new start-up is Government. What did I just write? Can that be true? Yes it is true! Government in Washington (USA) and Canberra (Australia) are now constantly launching new stuff. Stuff that does not have a dedicated revenue model nor make economic sense in a rational world. But this is not a rational world. This is the irrational world bequeathed to us all by those who screwed up the global financial system - whomever they were. The worrisome thing for little old me is that in this irrational world we have a Government Bubble looming. We have a set of public transfers of wealth, asset building, and "make work" programs that were not subject to rational analysis before their prototyping. Remember these are public sector prototypes not private sector ventures. But also note the only difference between the two really is that taxpayers not venture capitalists are funding these new Government led experiments. What is truly frightening me right now is the "burn rate" (cost of operation per week/month/year) for these Government start-ups. What is patently clear already is that when Governments do Start-ups they burn hundreds of millions, even billions, of dollars. When private companies do Start-ups they have more modest "burn rates" of a few hundred thousand and later a few million dollars. Government Start-up "burn rates" are truly amazing. Do you remember the fall-out from the Internet Bubble around 2001? Who can forget the fall-out from the Real Estate Bubble in 2008? What will the fall-out look like in 2015 from this Government Bubble? Digital business is essentially "free"...Do you work in a digital business? How much of your service or product range is free to global consumers? How much more can you provide that is free to local consumers? How much can you reduce the cost of your add on services to global and local consumers? How big can your network of consumers get over the next decade? The core asset of a digital business is that the margin cost of doing more is almost zero. This fact defies traditional notions of 'economies of scale'. This fact makes a nonsense of any business model based on the exclusion principle because at zero cost everyone can be included. YouTube is not flash in terms of quality but essentially it is free to you and me as consumers. If the content is relevant to you and you find it remarkable then you promote it - you do that free of charge too. This is how a simple video clip that lasts 30 seconds can sweep the globe in about 30 seconds. Wave after wave of consumers promote it to the next wave of consumers. This is the 'inclusion principle' of digital business at work. So if you are in a digital business please think free and think inclusion not exclusion....... February 22 Digital platforms bring you a new kind of business environment.Digital technology gives us the platform to network business services. Networks are tricky. Every node on a network has to get use value from being a member or it will opt out. Nodes receiving use value expand rapidly into clusters. These clusters are then invaded by unaligned consumers who discover they like what they see and so they create a node. If their new node receives use value too then it expands into a new cluster within the existing network. If you are to continue to provide use value your service or product range has to be networked. If it is a tangible product it can be shipped to a node or cluster but the real use value is the conversation between you and your consumers or users. The important thing to remember here is that this conversation is networked too. At any point throughout your current or future network a feedback loop can and will present you with accurate information on the success of your service or product range. It will also tell you what to change and sometimes precisely how to change it. Thus digital platforms bring you a new kind of business environment. February 21 Play offence not defence with digital networks....Are you on MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Ning, or some other web-based network? Listening to Marc Andreessen on Charlie Rose was fantastic - I recommend it see http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10093 he started to talk about playing offence or defence. This got me thinking (a hell of a lot slower than Marc) about what you and I think about our use of digital networks. It strikes me that most of us now think we are an integral part of this new digital revolution but are we really part of it or are we just clogging up these new networks? To find out where each of us stand we have to ask ourselves a simple question and then do the hard work to discover our own unique answer. The question is "Am I playing offence or defence? If I am playing offence then I am willing closing down my analogue business models, habits, and cultures. If I am playing defence then I am playing around with these new digital networks as an adjunct to what I have always done. February 20 Revenue wars go digital in 2009....What is your revenue model? Is it a people-based model? Is it viable in this recession? The hard issue for many of us is "will our people-based revenue models be viable in the near and longer-term future?" One example is newspapers. Newspapers are dying. The revenue models for traditional newspapers are stressed. The competitor to these models is "free content" from online news, opinion, blogs, etc. If you have a revenue model that is people-based and viable then you are well placed to grow your business in 2009. If not then you are probably headed into the unknown as revenue wars go digital in 2009. February 19 Optimism is akin to a second language in 2009....Doom and gloom is infectious. There is good reason for it sweeping the world in 2009. Thus optimism as the basis of our conversations is becoming akin to a second language. If you are upbeat and positive about your prospects you find you have more trouble conversing with your peers right now. Your peers are finely tuned into the language of recession, depression, displacement, failure, disappointment, and revenge. The tribal mantra for these times is pessimism not optimism. So if you are optimistic you will struggle to be heard above the din of low expectations. You will find you speak in halting sentences, you speak more slowly, you are more precise, you do not use big words, you certainly do not elaborate on your points, and your are much more hesitant or diffident in your expression than you normally would be. You are speaking the second language of optimism and so you are experiencing what is a common occurrence for people for whom English is a second language. The conversations you want to have are proving to be difficult constructs so you find you converse less and less. Facebook just keeps blowing it.....Facebook is in the news again for all the wrong reasons. It has upset its users again. It has been heavy handed and naive. It has done exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time. It has blown its goodwill at a time when it needs all the support it can get. Unbelievable, dumb, and unnecessary. Just when you think Facebook is finally getting its act together; it falls back into the bad old practice of not consulting its users before it does something stupid. The really stupid thing is not that it now says that it owns your Facebook content like it or not - ino the really dumb thing is that it has made the issue another "us" versus "them" battle. The "us" here is Facebook management and the "them" is their user base. Facebook management is searching for revenue models and so it is focussing on exclusion not inclusion. Get people to feel special in some way or other if they pay a fee for something - make sure they feel excluded if they do not pay. The problem with this revenue modeling approach for Facebook is it destroys their real asset - the real asset is the social network that Facebook forms because its users include others in their world in a free exchange of information, ideas, and conversation. February 18 Do meaningful work in 2009....Are you doing meaningful work today? Did you do meaningful work yesterday? What are your prospects for doing meaningful tomorrow? You decide what is meaningful and what is not right? If you work in an analogue system or organisation that is probably true. Although you do have to attend all those meetings and some of them are far from meaningful. In a digital network the user, consumer, or customer decides what is meaningful. If your network is expanding then what you are delivering is meaningful - it has 'use value' for those in the clusters, clans, and tribes around the network. If your network is not expanding then you know that your efforts are not meaningful. Want to know how this global financial crisis will pan out?The outcomes from this crisis, like all other crises, will depend upon how much the consensual elites who lead your cluster, clan, or tribe suffer. The more they suffer the better the outcome. The less they suffer the worse the outcomes for all of us. Simple really - see more explanation of this at http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/module.html?mod=0&pkg=13022009&seg=5 February 17 Move over Google here comes Twitter....Google Inc is anchored by its corporate culture - problem is the whole notion of its Googleplex headquarters is now a lead balloon. Google's long-term problem has two elements - 1) having a Googleplex culture is at odds with Google's pressing need to be a networked entity and 2) the Google management team did not cut their teeth on open networked cultures. Twitter has a 'first mover' advantage as a real time search engine. Twitter answers questions now. Twitter has information before Google has content pages. Twitter is fast becomig a personal asset for millions of users. Twitter is free and free of advertising. Twitter is open, transparent, and networked. Twitter relies on the talent of its users whereas Google relies on the talent assembled in its Googleplex. Twitter has a far superior 'talent model'. Social networks big for business in 2009Social networks are about to become a huge part of your business. In 2009 and beyond there is a new grapevine for your business. There is a new talent pool. There is a new culture. There is a new way of marketing. There is a new set of revenue models. The new grapevine is social networks. These come in 3 flavours so you get to choose one or a combo of all 3. First there are digital clusters where the grapevine chatters incessantly about current themes of interest. Second there are digital clans where the grapevine chatters about innovation, prototypes, and beta testing. Third there are digital tribes where the grapevine chatters about purpose, faith, shared values, ideology, and getting certain things done. The new talent pool is your user base. Smart users want to help you succeed. They will help you to improve your business if you listen to their feedback and act on it. The new culture is fragmented. It is not a homogeneous entity and no should it be. It is a trinity to accomodate the various aspects and activities of social networks. The new marketing is viral. It is word of mouth. It can be brilliant if your product or service is both relevant and remarkable for users. It can be lethal if you break trust with them. The new revenue models are passive not direct nor active. You find you are now competing with people outside your industry because you no longer compete with your product or service or talent but with your revenue model. Businesses from very different industries with very different profiles are going head to head for the same users' money. Think about it . Google competes with Microsoft yet their core business is entirely different. February 16 Innovation will hit the wall in 2009....Individual, business, and communal innovation will hit a wall of resistance in 2009. Why? Because we all tend to see events as confirmation of the latest fad rather than the perpetuation of bad practice from earlier fads... The latest fad is regulation of business and community. The common wisdom right now is that only government can be trusted to get us out of this global economic disaster. The latest fad is a 'group think' notion that governments know best. This is not a new idea but rather the perpetuation of an old idea dating back to 1930 in its modern form. We all need to innovate but in this environment any deviation from what is now 'prescribed' behaviour will be deemed to be too risky. So there will be little innovation by elite business people. For example, Google needs to become extraordinarily innovative right now if it is to continue to expand its universe. It must stay true to its purpose of 'search' but at the same time Google management must look to innovate its core business models. Part of that process must be to dismantle the Googleplex. 2009 is the perfect time to network the Googleplex - make it a truly global entity. It should happen but it won't. Google will begin its steady decline in 2009. February 15 Kindle 2 is a digital story book or is it?Kindle 2 is a new medium. It is digital technology designed for book readers. It allows book readers to access the content of a book online. To read it and recall it for a second read without access to the physical content. So this is not a book. It is not a computer. It is not a TV. What is Kindle 2? At present Kindle 2 is an expensive toy. It is useful for some book readers who use their Kindle to replace many hardcover and paperback books. It is useful for those who are opposed to pulping wood to make paper for books. It is convenient for those who travel and want to read a new release on an aircraft or in a hotel. But this is not a book or a replacement for a book. Rather it is a new way of accessing the content of a printed book. As readers become comfortable with Kindle 2 as their portal to books this technology platform will change. Kindle 3 might bring other content to your digital slate. Kindle 4 or 5 might bring new ways of presenting the material in a printed book - ways that are not practical in a printed form. For example, links to different parts of the book or to outside materials that support the premise, assumptions, points, etc being raised within this part of the story, case study, or fable. kindle 6 might include video clips or pod-cast interviews with the author, etc. Kindle 2 is not a book or is it? Perhaps it is a digital replacement for the traditional analogue book. Conversations or stories?Organisations are tribal because they are action orientated. When you pursue a purpose you build a common bond with people. You share values. You share trust. You share achievements. You share expectations. You share goals. The traditional way for humans to share is through stories. Stories take many forms - fables, fairytales, legends, myths, case studies, etc. Story telling is a great way to bond people to a common cause. It is a great way to consolidate the core traits of a tribe that is dedicated to a way of doing things. Thus stories are the mainstay of tribal cultures. Conversations are open ended and loose. They are free flowing and often ill formed - lacking structure, as in a beginning a middle and an end. Thus they are not foundation stones for action but rather a spur for new ideas and experimentations. Conversations are real time entities. They are network content. They form clusters rather than tribes - informal rather than formal memories. They are transient and open ended. Conversations are a demonstration effect of collaboration thus they form clans not tribes. Clans are experimental, temporary,
transient, and real time entities. Tribes are solid, robust,
long-term, and cultural entities. Twitter your IP....Twitter your IP to build clusters, clans, and tribes. In a digital networked world your IP is your 'maven'. It is your digital calling card. You become the connector and the advocate for new ways of doing things around the network. You can build three independent cultures that are united by your IP. How good is that? February 14 Twitter Themes, Facebook Clans, and MySpace Tribes.....Tweets about Facebook form a Theme Cluster. Key themes get shared via Facebook Clans. Themes become actions within MySpace Tribes . You can go digital with confidence....Are you confident? Do you worry about your job? Do you feel sidetracked in your career? Do you worry more in 2009 than 2007 about your future and your children's future? Do you see recession and depression all around you? Flick your switch from analogue to digital and you will feel a surge of confidence and a new found future. Digital technology and networks portend a huge new future. If you stay within the analogue systems - which is where you are if you are depressed or facing the real impact of this economic recession - then you will struggle to find the confidence you will need to take advantage of the opportunities floating around within digital networks. The key to take hold of these opportunities is to change your mindsets, habits, and behaviours to better suit digital networks. You need to think about now, to reform programed work habits, and to act in real time. The great thing about 2009 is if you are confident about your future then you are probably doing the right things to switch from analogue to digital systems. |
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